The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) has expressed optimism regarding Thailand’s export prospects, with expectations that the full-year performance will not contract by more than 1.5%. Chaichan Chareonsuk, Chairman of TNSC, cited recent export growth in August and September and continued orders for the final quarter as key indicators of this positive outlook, as reported by Bangkok Post.
Thailand’s exports registered a second consecutive monthly increase in September, up by 2.1% year-on-year to reach US$25.5 billion, while imports decreased by 8.3% to $23.4 billion. This resulted in a trade surplus of $2.09 billion. However, for the first nine months of the year, exports saw a decline of 3.8% to $213 billion, with imports decreasing by 6.0% to $219 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $5.83 billion.
The ongoing Middle East conflict, as noted by Chaichan, has had limited impact on Thailand’s exports due to its confined geographical scope and involvement of only two parties. The exchange rate, remaining favorable for Thailand’s exports despite high volatility, falls within the range of 35.50 to 36.50 baht per dollar.
Chaichan outlined potential scenarios for the full-year performance, with a 1% contraction if exports average $23.8 billion per month for the final three months, and a 1.5% contraction if the monthly average drops to $23.3 billion. A more significant 2% contraction is unlikely, according to Chaichan, as certain goods such as automobiles, auto components, and agricultural products continue to perform well.
Looking forward, Chaichan expects exports to increase by up to 7% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2023. The TNSC maintains its export target for the year at -1.5% as of November, taking into account various factors that could influence export performance.
For 2024, the outlook for Thailand’s exports remains positive, with growth expected to be within the range of 0-2%. Chaichan highlighted the resilience of businesses, stable global oil prices, and a lack of export slowdown or container shortages. Should negative factors persist, businesses are well-prepared to adapt and seek new markets.
